I have a painting in my office of an old time Sailing Ship that is fighting a fierce storm. The waves have completely engulfed the ship and all you see are the sails projecting out of the waves. This image serves as a metaphor for my personal and professional life. Anyone can sail a ship on a calm day, but you find out what kind of Skipper you truly are when you are able to save your crew, your cargo, your vessel and your life during a fierce storm.
The financial meltdown that hit our Country was a fierce storm. The Mortgage Companies were loaning money like a bunch of drunken sailors. Rightly their ships took on water and ended up sinking, unfortunately taking many innocent lives to the bottom of the sea with them.
Naturally, anything connected with housing suffered and that suffering had an impact on the Gallatin Valley. The negative downturn in the housing sector rippled throughout the rest of the valley’s economy. Businesses that were operating at the margins have gone the way of the dinosaurs.
So what are some of the resulting positives and negatives to the financial mortgage meltdown, for both employees and business owners to examine locally? Let’s discuss some of the negatives first, so I can leave you on a positive note.
The current administration’s solution was to throw a lot of money at the problem to try stimulating the economy. That tactic was doomed from the start due to the fact that over 70% of the businesses in this country are small businesses. The money thrown was never going to trickle down to them. Lenders have tightened up the purse strings on available money to loan and credit card companies continue to jack up their interest rates.
A local business owner who has an excellent credit rating and payment history showed me a letter he received from one of his credit card companies. They were notifying him that his current interest rate of 7.99% was being raised to 29.99%. We were both shocked and I personally can’t wait for congress to run these guys through the meat grinder. Sadly, though, the reason that Congress is so fixated on health care reform is that they are truly incapable of fixing the financial mess that they created by demanding liberal mortgage lending.
The national jobless rate is now over 10%, yet the Gallatin Valley unemployment rate is well below that at 5.5%; up from 2.9% last year. If you are looking for a job I don’t have to tell you that it is tough out there. Jobs are available and businesses are hiring, but selectively. My advice to seekers is, select a business that offers you the kind of work you are passionate about and learn how to “sell” yourself to that business owner. The days of filling out an application, dropping it off, and hoping it all works out – are over.
I could go further with negatives, but that is water that, thankfully, is now downstream. So let’s discuss some positives of the economic downturn. Yellowstone Park just reported that visitation has now surpassed last year. The Airport is undertaking a 40 million dollar expansion that is going to double the size of the terminal. The project is expected to take two years to complete and employ over 175 people. When it is finished, Southwest Montana will have a world-class facility that will be capable of handling more than 1.5 million passengers each year.
There is more good news. Lodging has shown a slight increase even with expanding competition. Bozeman’s largest employers continue to grow and remain healthy. The workforce at the City, State, and Federal level remain stable as does area schools. Area Restaurants are getting busier. Auto repair shops are seeing increases. Grocery stores’ revenues continue to show growth as well.
It has been said that when the rest of the country gets the flu, our Gallatin Valley only gets a cold. The 4th quarter of 2009 will continue to grow if consumers turn off the national news and celebrate what is going on here at home. Some business sectors related to the housing and auto industries will be slower to show signs of improvement, but they too will recover.
Business owners and managers have learned over the last 24 months, and the economy got them motivated to make the necessary changes in their operation in order to survive. Staff levels were cut and operational efficiencies took center stage. They have learned about scaleability and they are now wiser Skippers that can sail through a terrible storm. The downturn in the economy also created an excellent employee talent pool and that is a real welcome for many businesses.
The storm is not over but we do know there will be blue skies and calm seas ahead. Ferdinand Magellan said it best back in 1520 when he circumnavigated the earth with 5 ships and 237 sailors. “Intrepid spirits seek victory over those things that seem impossible. It is with an iron will that they embark on the most daring of all endeavors…to meet the shadowy future without fear and conquer the unknown”. Now is the time to have the courage to succeed!
